Cooperating on AI with Africa: Europe is Losing Momentum

Could you first explain what’s happening with AI development in Africa?

Africa’s engagement with AI presents a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities. According to MIT Tech Review, more than 90% of training data comes from North America and Europe, with less than 4% from Africa. This imbalance is not just a statistic – it fundamentally shapes AI development on the continent. The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) AI Preparedness Index and the Oxford Insights ranking show Africa consistently lagging behind other regions. For example, in the Oxford Insights ranking, we found that Mauritius, the most advanced sub-Saharan country in AI readiness, ranks only 57^th globally (over 181 countries). This raises critical questions about data sovereignty and algorithmic bias that could reinforce existing inequalities.

These challenges contrast sharply with Africa’s market potential. What makes this market so strategic?

The $1.5 trillion market opportunity forecast by the United Nations’ Economic Commission represents transformative potential across multiple sectors. This isn’t just about consumer applications – it encompasses critical areas like healthcare delivery, agricultural optimization, and public service modernization. As the former Vice President of Ghana, M. Bawumia, noted: “Africans have a goldmine at their fingertips. A rapidly growing population of 1.4 billion people, 70% under the age of 30, combined with huge growth in AI investments.”

This potential has sparked intense international competition. While US Big Tech companies are establishing research centers and Chinese firms like Huawei are deploying major cloud infrastructure, European influence is tangibly declining. Despite efforts from companies like Orange and SAP, Europe’s digital footprint in Africa is shrinking precisely when the market is poised for exponential growth.

How are African countries responding to these opportunities and challenges?

We’re seeing three distinct strategic approaches, each reflecting different priorities and capabilities. First, countries like Mauritius, Egypt, and Nigeria are pursuing comprehensive AI strategies with strong public sector leadership. Mauritius’s pioneering 2018 strategy treats AI as an integrated component of economic development, while Egypt is positioning itself as a regional AI powerhouse through systematic modernization of public services.

Second, countries like South Africa, Rwanda, and Tunisia are fostering multi-stakeholder ecosystems. South Africa’s approach is particularly notable, combining market-driven innovation with strong academic partnerships through its AI Institute and university hubs.

Third, we have the innovation-first countries like Morocco and Kenya. Morocco’s hosting of the Rabat Summit and Kenya’s position among the fastest-growing digital economies show how countries can lead regionally without comprehensive national strategies.

Infrastructure seems crucial here. What are the specific challenges?

The infrastructure challenge is fundamentally about computing power and data processing capacity. Cloud computing adoption in Africa is just 15%, compared to Europe’s 71%. This gap is critical because cloud capabilities directly determine AI development potential – from model training to deployment and business use cases. The continent’s limited network of about 100 data centers, concentrated in a few countries, creates a significant barrier to AI innovation.

However, we’re seeing encouraging developments in research and training capabilities. The Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P) in Morocco has established itself as an international AI research hub, attracting global partnerships and talent. Similar centers of excellence are emerging, though the overall capacity remains concentrated in North Africa.

How is this shaping international competition in Africa?

The competition is creating a clear divide between “sovereigntist” countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco) prioritizing national control, and “regionalist” countries (South Africa, Ghana, Senegal) embracing multilateral frameworks. This split has significant implications for international partnerships.

Chinese companies are making decisive moves through major Cloud region investments, particularly in Nigeria and Egypt. These aren’t just infrastructure projects – they’re comprehensive digital transformation initiatives including AI-augmented public services. US Big Tech companies are following suit with their own strategic investments. Meanwhile, European involvement, despite multiple initiatives, is losing ground in terms of both market presence and strategic influence.

What specific advantages do European companies have in this context?

European technology companies bring unique strengths in delivering focused, interoperable solutions through initiatives like Global Gateway. Their expertise in areas like data governance, e-health, and regulatory frameworks aligns well with African development priorities. European solutions, particularly those with natively embedded AI, can generate significant productivity and competitiveness gains for African enterprises.

German and French development cooperation exemplify effective European engagement. Through GIZ and GovStack, an open-source community, Germany maintains both bilateral partnerships and multilateral engagement. The Agence Française de Développement (AFD) and KFW Development Bank provide valuable technical assistance and program design. However, without greater support, coordination and resources, these strengths risk being overshadowed by competitors’ massive infrastructure investments.

What concrete steps should Europe take to strengthen its position?

European action needs to be immediate and substantial. First, EU institutions must provide targeted support to European technology companies operating in African markets, particularly in harmonizing their approaches with development goals. This includes leveraging existing platforms more effectively – the AI Action Summit, Rwanda AI Summit, Mediterranean AI Forum, and African Union forums offer immediate opportunities for strengthening cooperation.

Second, Europe should focus on its comparative advantages in professional solutions and regulatory frameworks. By combining technical expertise with strong governance principles, European companies can offer distinctive value in Africa’s digital transformation. This approach should emphasize solutions that embed AI capabilities while respecting data sovereignty and promoting sustainable development.

Looking ahead to 2030, what’s at stake for Europe?

The stakes are both economic and strategic. Without immediate action, Europe risks permanent marginalization in Africa’s digital transformation. This would mean losing access to a $1.5 trillion market opportunity and, more critically, diminishing Europe’s global technological position.

The African Union’s vision of a Digital Single Market by 2030 presents a crucial opportunity. However, realizing this potential requires Europe to move beyond traditional technical assistance toward more substantial market engagement. The continent will likely see increasing fragmentation between national champions and regional cooperators, making it essential for Europe to develop differentiated engagement strategies while supporting overall African digital integration.